Toward our Human Future: catastrophic risk, the public good, and the importance of community
The Commission for the Human Future (@HumanFutureAU) recently held a groundbreaking webinar on Catastrophic Risk and the Public Good: Toward our Human Future. Hosted by Dr Arnagretta Hunter (@cbr_heartdoc) - a cardiologist and the Human Futures Fellow in the College of Health and Medicine at ANU and chair of the Commission - and featuring Dr Luke Kemp, an expert in catastrophic risk now based at Cambridge, and Dr Millie Rooney from Australia reMADE, the discussion addressed two big themes: threats to humanity and what matters for people in their lives. The conclusions were that community is central to our human future, and that catastrophic risks like climate change, nuclear war and artificial intelligence can be reduced through better democratic representation, through better economics and through a deliberate acknowledgement of the value of caring and importance of community. In today’s post, Dr Hunter explores key lessons from the webinar and explains why the best hope for a better human future lies in concerted effort.
The pathway toward our best human future became clearer recently when I had the privilege of hosting a webinar between two great thinkers: Luke Kemp who considers the collapse of civilisations and human survival in the face of catastrophic risks, and Millie Rooney who understands and cares about what people need and want in their lives. For about an hour we held these two views, global and local, in our sights and the road ahead emerged.
Catastrophic risks are hazards faced by large parts of the global population and that have the potential to kill a significant proportion of the population. Commonly agreed risks include climate change, environmental disasters, artificial intelligence, pandemics and nuclear war. The study of catastrophic and existential risk is growing and commands increasing attention particularly this century.
Each risk deserves individual attention with solutions to climate change, environmental degradation, pandemics, nuclear war and artificial intelligence deserving of investment in their own right. But there is also what Luke Kemp describes as the ‘Pokemon Effect’, the interrelated, often interdependent nature of these catastrophic risks. That we should not address climate change at the expense of an increase in risk of nuclear war or dangerous use of AI. That we are not safe as a civilisation until all these catastrophic risks have been considered and contained.
The first time I introduced Millie Rooney to Luke Kemp, Millie’s burning question was to ask Luke how he copes emotionally with studying existential risk. A counter balance to the often-overwhelming nature of catastrophic risk can be seen in the work Millie does with Australia reMADE, an organisation focused on the elements of human life that bring joy, happiness and community: elements such as a safe climate, democracy and justice. The power of recognising our ‘collective yes’, what it is that we all have in common and want from our lives, will bring us together and meaningfully help in addressing the challenges faced by civilisation today. So, what are the things that matter for people?
The Vision developed by Australia reMADE offers an informed perspective on what matters for Australians. Developed through conversations with many people across political, social and cultural divides, elements of this vision include acknowledgement of Indigenous peoples and their knowledge, equality in economics and society, diversity in culture and society, caring for the environment, creating space for work and making contributions both locally and globally.
When we consider what people will work toward, what inspires and motivates change, it is often the local, community challenges. Housing is a central concern for many people, education and meaningful work, access to nature and connection to both community and place. This is the flip-side to considering the hazards and emergencies that we face globally: coming together as a community of individuals who care for each other and the places that we live.
Can we address catastrophic risk and build community? We learn quite a bit from history about how communities confront catastrophic risks. Currently writing a book on how civilisations collapse, Luke Kemp appreciates the significance of learning from the past. As described in the book by Acemoglu and Robinson Why Nations Fail, issues such as economics and debt, and land ownership / distribution are common tensions in periods of history where a civilisation ended or changed. Increasing inequality and centralisation of power are also serious issues for civilisations under strain. The hazards of environmental change or pandemics can trigger catastrophic events; however, governance is a central lever for civilizational survival or collapse.
Bringing together these themes, catastrophic risks and building communities, helps identify solutions for our future. Policy solutions that allow us to prioritise caring for people and place over money and markets and over politics and power, can help address many of the anthropomorphic catastrophic risks we face. So how might this be achieved and what are the benefits of this change in perspective? Three ideas emerged from our discussion: democracy, economics and the importance of caring.
Democracy and representation matter for both how we respond to catastrophic hazards and for how we build our best community. For Luke Kemp, making our current systems more deliberative and democratic is the most important response to building our best future. We know most people take catastrophic hazards like nuclear war or climate change seriously, but there is a disconnect between our concern and policy translation within governance structures. There are many effective mechanisms that help bridge this divide including deliberative assemblies and juries. These mechanisms can rebalance the power which has disproportionately and destructively shifted toward big corporations who operate with an agenda that often does not reflect the will of the people.
Better democratic processes also help build community. According to Millie Rooney, most of us would welcome discussion that bridges the political divide that can destroy communities over polarising issues such as climate change. When we foster and facilitate democratic conversations the solutions are often better for all involved. Australia has examples of where this has been effective. A recent book Mending Democracy from Carolyn Henricks and colleagues offers several examples of this including the Voices for Indi approach in the federal electorate of Indi, and the Knitting Nannas who formed to work together in communities in northern NSW contending with coal seam gas projects.
The coronavirus pandemic has many people talking and thinking about economic systems. We make choices with our economic strategies about where and how to invest our resources and what parts of society represent important capital. What and how we measure matters. The move away from GDP as major metric has benefits of representing social, ecological and other impacts of our economic choices. We can use economics to foster community and to contend with global hazards.
Finally, Millie Rooney knows that caring is central to our lives and argues of its importance in our present and future. Caring is key to relationships, communities, and yet it’s harder to value or measure than many of the metrics we use routinely. Acknowledging the value of caring: for people, places, ourselves and our environment can be so powerful in creating community and both reducing and contending with global hazards such as climate change. This process starts with community and political conversations in which the value of caring is core.
Both Millie and Luke offer genuine hope for the future. Humans can be kind, smart and collaborate well together. Believing in our communities, our capacity to care and capacity to engage in discussions, debates and solutions for the challenges we face is central for hope in our future. In face of catastrophic hazards such as pandemics, climate change and war it is our capacity to care for each other and our planet that may save us. The process of building solutions is part of the solution, as we work effectively together, giving voice and representation across our society, we will find our best human future.
About the author:
Dr Arnagretta Hunter is a cardiologist and the Human Futures Fellow in the College of Health and Medicine at the Australian National University, Canberra. She Is chair of the Commission for the Human Future who hosted the Webinar on which this piece is based. Further information on the Commission can be found at www.humanfuture.net
Content moderator: Sue Olney